Beyond the Vendor Pitch Deck

Every automation vendor has a slide showing an 18-month payback period and 3x throughput gains. But what does the data actually show once robots hit the warehouse floor?

We partnered with an independent research group to analyze operational data from 50 goods-to-person (G2P) and autonomous mobile robot (AMR) deployments across North American 3PLs. The facilities ranged from 80,000 to 1.2 million square feet, handling everything from apparel to auto parts.

The Numbers

Here's what we found across the 50 deployments:

• Median payback period: 26 months (vs. the 12-18 months vendors typically promise)
• Median throughput increase: 2.1x
• Median pick error reduction: 67%
• Median labor cost reduction: 41%
• Top quartile payback: 16 months
• Top quartile throughput: 3.4x

The median payback period of 26 months is notably longer than most vendors promise. But the top-performing deployments significantly outpaced projections.

What Separates Winners From Underperformers

The gap between median and top-quartile results is striking. Three factors consistently predicted success:

1. SKU Profile Alignment

Facilities with moderate SKU counts (5,000-25,000) and predictable velocity curves saw the fastest payback. High-SKU, long-tail operations struggled with robot utilization rates.

2. Change Management Investment

The top performers spent 15-20% of their automation budget on training, process redesign, and organizational change management. Underperformers treated the robot deployment as a pure technology project.

3. Iterative Deployment

Rather than a big-bang rollout, successful operators started with a single zone, optimized workflows, and expanded. This approach added time upfront but reduced total deployment risk by an estimated 40%.

The Hidden Benefits

Beyond the headline metrics, operators reported benefits that rarely make it into ROI calculators:

• Reduced workers' comp claims — 35% average decrease in injury-related costs
• Shift flexibility — ability to run lights-out or skeleton-crew shifts during off-peak periods
• Customer retention — measurable improvement in SLA compliance leading to contract renewals

The Bottom Line

Robotic picking delivers real value, but the path to ROI is more nuanced than the pitch suggests. 3PLs considering automation should pressure-test vendor projections against their specific SKU profile, plan for meaningful change management investment, and resist the urge to automate everything at once.

The operators getting the best returns aren't the ones with the most robots — they're the ones who deployed them most thoughtfully.